NATE COHN

A closer look at Pennsylvania and Nevada, and some Democratic leads that seem vulnerable.

No, they are not favored. But the notion of retaining the chamber is not as far-fetched as it once was.

Finding analogies for big successes by the party out of power.

There are some signs of a drift toward issues where the party has an advantage, like the economy and immigration.

A simpler explanation for a Democratic turnaround.

Revisiting an influential book and the notion that demographics are destiny.

Polling error is not inevitable, and there are signs that 2022 may be different.

This cycle, the arguments for Democratic strength cut against the conventional wisdom that the party in power struggles in midterms.

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Democrats are polling well in exactly the places where surveys missed most in 2020.