NATE COHN

Answering questions on topics including polling, independent voters and Black turnout.

In the so-called invisible primary, there’s often a clear relationship between early polling and the eventual outcome.

A presidential bid and a measure of how far Reaganism has fallen.

His support among Republicans at this early stage of the primary cycle puts him in rare company.

The polls are surprisingly divided, but higher-quality surveys point to an answer.

The Tea Party is over. Cultural issues seem to animate G.O.P. voters.

How much did coronavirus deaths, redistricting and voter suppression matter in the last election?

G.O.P. infighting figures to be the political story line of 2023.

There were several reasons Republicans struggled to translate votes into seats, including candidate quality and strength in the wrong places.

No, the main G.O.P. problem wasn’t prioritizing Election Day voting over early voting.