NATE COHN
Posts
Consistent Signs of Erosion in Black and Hispanic Support for Biden
It’s a weakness that could manifest itself as low Democratic turnout even if Trump and Republicans don’t gain among those groups.
A New Trial Date. A New Primary Season.
A March trial could become the center of gravity of the G.O.P. primary, structuring the campaigns of Donald Trump and his rivals.
Making Sense of Ron DeSantis’s Debate Performance
Ron DeSantis’s performance can be interpreted as akin to a front-runner’s — in the race for No. 2 behind Donald J. Trump.
The First Debate and the Race for Second Place
Being No. 2 could be especially important next year, and Ramaswamy has been gaining on DeSantis.
It’s Not Reagan’s Party Anymore
Ronald Reagan’s “three-legged stool” coalition supported the G.O.P. for decades. Our latest poll leaves little doubt that Donald J. Trump has put an end to...
Is Trump Leaving an Opening in Iowa?
The former president’s poll numbers are still strong. But the caucuses could be his rivals’ best chance to make him look vulnerable.
Can the Race Really Be That Close? Yes, Biden and Trump Are Tied.
A Times/Siena poll suggests a slight Biden edge among voters who don’t like either candidate.
Why Trump Is So Hard to Beat
The first Times/Siena poll of the G.O.P. primary shows he still commands a seemingly unshakable base of loyal supporters.
How Did We Do? A Review of 2022 Before Our First Poll of 2023.
Trying to learn from a strong midterm run as we start surveying the G.O.P. primary.
Hard Questions if Biden’s Approval Doesn’t Follow Economy’s Rise
This is about the time when many presidents see their standing turn around, including Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.
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