NATE COHN
Posts
We Did an Experiment to See How Much Democracy and Abortion Matter to Voters
Yes, the economy is important, but we found that election subversion attempts appear to matter more to voters than polling suggests.
The Crisis in Issue Polling, and What We’re Doing About It
A poll can be very close to the actual result but miss the key story line. We’ll try new question forms; we might even try...
Tuesday Was Great for Democrats. It Doesn’t Change the Outlook for 2024.
A pattern continued with success in low-turnout elections, which favors highly engaged voters. Presidential years tend to be different.
Trump Now Leads Biden
An analysis of a new set of New York Times / Siena College polls.
Why Less Engaged Voters Are Biden’s Biggest Problem
His weakness is concentrated among those who stayed home in the midterms but who may show up in 2024.
Fight for Speaker Reveals Four Types of House Republicans
Jim Jordan’s bid showed the power of the ultraconservative faction in Congress.
The New Republican Establishment
An alternative Trumpist governing elite gets closer to ruling the party.
What Polling After the First Debate Tells Us About Round 2
Nikki Haley received a small lift, but another good performance Wednesday may simply splinter the opposition to Donald Trump.
It’s Not a Race, Yet, in the Republican Primary
Donald Trump is polling about as well as any candidate in the modern history of contested presidential primaries.
Why Are Democrats Losing Ground Among Nonwhite Voters? 5 Theories.
There’s no shortage of solid hypotheses, and the best explanation may be a combination of them.
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